Step 1: Basic Information
Enter your opportunity cost - either loan interest you're paying OR investment returns you're missing (CD, money market, etc.)
Step 2: Storage Information
While on-farm storage has real costs (electricity, maintenance, etc.), enter 0 if you want to ignore these
Step 3: Current Market
Enter basis in cents (e.g., -45 for 45¢ under, 10 for 10¢ over)
Step 4: Holding Period
Step 5: Projections & Goals
What do you expect basis to be on your target date?
How much additional profit per bushel are you targeting?
Step 6: Market Volatility (Optional)
Optional: Enter implied volatility from options market for probability analysis
Tip: If you skip this, you'll still get cost analysis and breakeven calculations. Adding IV gives you probability-based decision support.
Holding Costs
Days
Interest Cost:
Per Bushel:
Storage Cost:
Per Bushel:
TOTAL COST:
Per Bushel:
Basis Analysis
Current Basis:
Expected Future Basis:
Basis Improvement:
Required Price Movement
Current Cash Price:
Rally to Break Even:
Rally for Goal:
Current Futures:
Required Futures:
Needed Rally:
Probability Analysis
Upside Potential
Probability of Touching Target
Probability of Closing Above Target
Potential Gain at Target:
Downside Risk Analysis
Holding Costs (Guaranteed Loss if Flat):
Worst Case: Futures Decline + Holding Costs
If futures drop 5%:
Probability:
If futures drop 10%:
Probability:
If futures drop same % as target gain ():
Probability:
Risk/Reward Summary
Target Upside:
Symmetric Downside:
Risk/Reward Ratio:
Volatility Information
Implied Volatility:
Expected Daily Move:
Expected Move Over Period:
Scenario Analysis
Probability of reaching target under different volatility conditions
Low Volatility ():
Current Market IV ():
High Volatility ():
Risk Assessment
Make Your Decision